« La croissance et les sans-emplois seront les grands perdants du virage à droite de l’Europe »

Les partisans du grand projet européen ont connu un choc particulièrement rude ce weekend. Avec le centre qui se maintient en tête des sondages, les divisions du paysage politique se font plus importantes et risquent de toucher les perspectives de croissance européenne et de fragiliser encore les sans-emplois.  

Son analyse :

• La percée massive du bloc eurosceptique aux élections parlementaires est impossible à ignorer
• Le rejet des électeurs du mouvement continu d’intégration met en péril le projet européen
• Les divisions au sein de l’Europe augmentent avec pour conséquences des perspectives de chômage revues à la hausse et une menace sur la croissance économique

Lisez ci-dessous le commentaire de Steen Jakobsen, économiste en chef de Saxo Bank (en anglais).

Across Europe, EU sceptic voters gained ground, but it could be in vain as the overall majority of the old guard: Conservative, Liberals, Greens and Social democrat’s still carry 70 percent of the mandates. 

How the protest votes engage with the main stream parties will set the tone for Europe over the next five years. If the protest parties just want a floor to shout “No, thank you to Europe”, then we will see the old parties align themselves more towards the middle and dilute the negative votes. On the other hand, if the EU sceptic votes want real influence, then compromise and seeking real influence on key votes will be strategy. 

The European Parliament makes a new law every second day, which is scary in itself, but it also shows you that Europe today is very much a machine where stopping the momentum is extremely hard. The EU system is built and set up to protect the bureaucratic model and it clearly favours pro-EU inclined political parties.

This biased set-up and momentum makes the results in the UK, Italy, Greece, Denmark, and France impossible to ignore. The implications in France and the UK carry the biggest weight where Marine Le Pen's National Front took 25% of the vote and an estimated 25 seats and Nigel Farage's UK Independence Party obliterated the traditional parties of power to take 28 percent of the poll and an estimated 23 seats. 

The chances of a UK voting no in the referendum next year is now a clear and present danger. UK Independent Party has arrived at the national scene, likewise in France where Marine Le Pen now clearly has become a force to reckon with in the next Presidential election. 

A move to a more wait-and-see attitude away from the full support for everything European will be the biggest marginal change in Europe. By ignoring the wishes of their voters a lot of mainstream parties across Europe are now looking for a new strategy – a strategy which after this week’s election will entail less Europe, not more. 

In is also total opposition to EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barosso’s State of the Union speech where he said: “the problem with Europe is not that we have too much Europe, it’s that we have to little”. Europe’s voters clearly disagree and the consequences of this EP election may be slow and small, but significant.

• Marine Le Pen's National Front takes 25% of the vote, Francois Hollande's socialists plunge to 14%
• UKIP relegates traditional parties to win 23 MEP seats, Liberal Democrats obliterated
• Denmark, Hungary and the Netherlands all see significant right-wing gains
• Italy's centre-left holds off right-wing party to take 40% of vote
• Germany stays firmly on the middle road with Angela Merkel's Christian Union taking 35%

The new European Parliament will have stronger democratic credentials which are anchored in the Lisbon Treaty and includes new lawmaking powers. It will be decisive on a majority of EU legislation. In total, over 40 new fields have been added including agriculture, energy policy (or the lack of it), immigration and EU funds. The Parliament also has the final say on the EU budget. 

The biggest immediate change will be that the new President of the European Commission will need to have the approval of the Parliament to take office. We can expect a major fight between the EU Council and the European Parliament on exactly this point. Don’t expect any consensus before the last minute. 

The 751 members of the EU Parliament operate through coalitions of interest across countries and sometimes political standpoint. The final date for submitting a coalition is June 23, and a “coalition” has to be at least 25 members from seven different nations. 

Here the protest votes can play vital role. The Europe-sceptic votes are divided. The risk is that similar to the Occupy movement in the US, the lack of common goal, except being negative, makes the majority get away with ignoring what clearly is a call from the voters to the politicians that Europe is too far away from the daily life of its 500 million citizens.

The Banking union, the two-pack, the six-pack, the high unemployment and low growth remain formidable challenges. I still see a dramatic slow-down in Germany into 2015 as the biggest risk for Europe. Germany have been the locomotive so far, surviving by exporting to Asia during this crisis, but now Asia is slowing down leaving us with less export in Europe. 

The EU “economic police” will be tested. France and Spain is already in violation of budget deficits for 2014 and 2015. The so called “recovery” is actually a stabilisation, not recovery. In history, unions, even primitive ones, fail when economic times turns negative. A new test is upon us as we leave 2014 in my opinion, and has not been made easier by the new European Parliament. Voters and politicians are clearly not agreeing. Putting anything European to a referendum will be risky and hence Europe is now on move to a pace of speed walking from jogging along.

The market is ignoring the European Parliamentary 2014 results, they see the glass half-full. However, as the new European Parliament gets down to business, the in-fighting will continue in the European Council, in the European Parliament, between the EU Council and European Parliament, and between the EU and the voters of Europe. That is the ultimate conclusion: Europe’s politicians and its voters have never been further apart. The price for that is a continued flow of miscommunication which will leave Europe weaker, with less decision power and ever-widening rifts. 

As George Bernard Shaw once said: “The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place”. 

What Europe needs is to move forward with a political and fiscal union to consolidate and progress. It will clearly not happen. It also needs to simplify its business. Also very unlikely to happen. We have just increased the complexity of politics and decisions making. The loser, as always remains the unemployed, growth and reforms. The victor: Buying more time. Sad. Really.

A propos de Saxo Bank Belgium

Créée en 1992 par Kim Fournais et Lars Seier Christensen, Saxo Bank (www.saxobank.com) est le spécialiste du trading et des investissements en ligne, permettant à ses clients de gérer leur portefeuille d’actifs financiers via les plates-formes de trading SaxoTrader (version téléchargeable), SaxoWebTrader (version web) et SaxoMobileTrader (version mobile). Banque européenne depuis 2001, Saxo Bank est aujourd’hui la deuxième banque du Danemark et le leader mondial sur le marché du Forex. Saxo Bank compte plus de 120 clients en marque blanche, des milliers d’IB (Introducing Broker) et est fière de compter des centaines de milliers de clients dans plus de 180 pays. Saxo Bank a réalisé, en 2011, 475 M€ de produit net bancaire (83 M€ de résultat net) et exécute en moyenne 20 milliards de dollars de transactions par jour. Saxo Bank, dont le siège social est à Copenhague, emploie actuellement plus de 1000 personnes de 62 pays différents et est notamment implantée au Royaume-Uni, en France, en Suisse, à Singapour, en Espagne, en Australie, au Japon, en Chine, en Italie, à Dubaï, à Prague, aux Pays-Bas, en Russie et en Belgique.

Lancée en octobre 2011, Saxo Bank Belgium est inscrite auprès de la Banque Nationale de Belgique (Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, 1000 Bruxelles, www.bnb.be). Elle permet aux particuliers, banques et courtiers de négocier des devises, des options FX, des Forward FX les CFD sur indices/actions/matières premières, et autres dérivés à travers ses plates-formes de trading en ligne. Les plates-formes de trading sont disponibles directement auprès de Saxo Bank ou par le biais de l'un de ses partenaires internationaux. Saxo Bank Belgium appartient à 100% à la banque d’origine danoise Saxo Bank.